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UN warns El Niño could become strongest on record

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Neutral summary

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the El Niño event, which has become "firmly established" in the tropical Pacific, is set to intensify into a "very strong" episode and is likely to persist until February 2027. The agency puts the probability of this at nearly 100 percent and says the event could become the strongest since record-keeping began. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world has entered a "danger zone of extreme weather," while WMO chief Celeste Saulo highlighted increased risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat. Forecasts suggest the peak will occur around the end of 2026, with effects extending into a 2027 that some projections say could be the hottest year on record.

How it was framed

Outlets: 73. Countries: 23. Facts in the shared core: 2.

Publication timeline

  1. · The Hill (outlet profile)

    Map shows where the 2026 'super' El Niño could bring lots of rain, extreme drought. Some forecasts indicate this year's El Niño may be the strongest ever recorded.

  2. · Sky News (outlet profile)

    Forecasters warn current extreme weather El Nino phenomenon to be 'exceptional'. Forecasters have warned it is almost certain that this year's El Nino will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months and las…

  3. · The Citizen (outlet profile)

    Wetter September expected before heatwaves arrive. A strengthening El Niño could make 2027 the hottest year on record, with increased heatwave risks across South Africa.

  4. · Wired (outlet profile)

    The 2026 El Niño Is Being ‘Supersized’ as Impacts Worsen. The World Meteorological Organization is warning that the climate phenomenon that has the Pacific running a fever will last until at least February, with dire co…

  5. · RTÉ News (outlet profile)

    WMO warns El Niño could fuel extreme weather worldwide. A potentially exceptional El Niño warming event is expected to strengthen significantly into a "very strong" El Niño over the coming months, the WMO warned.

  6. · Libération (outlet profile)

    L’Organisation météorologique mondiale alerte sur l’intensité d’El Niño : «C’est la première fois que nos prévisions sont aussi catégoriques». Le phénomène climatique naturel et réchauffant s’est «solidement installé» e…

  7. · El País (outlet profile)

    ‘El Niño’ alcanzará su apogeo a finales de año y se extenderá al menos hasta febrero. La Organización Meteorológica Mundial actualiza sus pronósticos sobre este evento, que se prevé que sea muy intenso

  8. · G1 (outlet profile)

    El Niño vai ficar muito forte e deve persistir até fevereiro de 2027, diz ONU. O que é o El Niño e como ele pode afetar o seu dia a dia O El Niño deve continuar se intensificando nos próximos meses e alcançar uma intens…

  9. · Daily Mail (outlet profile)

    El Niño is being supersized before our eyes: Scientists warn the devastating climate event is 'firmly established' - and is on track to wreak havoc until at least February. El Niño is 'firmly established' and will conti…

  10. · BBC News (outlet profile)

    UN warns of 'supersized' El Nino as countries prepare for impact. The WMO has warned that the natural weather phenomenon could bring disruption to global economies.

  11. · Le Figaro (outlet profile)

    L’épisode El Niño en cours s’annonce d’une ampleur «historique», avec des conséquences climatiques très fortes. DÉCRYPTAGE - L’Organisation météorologique mondiale alerte sur l’intensité inédite du phénomène qui prend n…

  12. · TheJournal.ie (outlet profile)

    'Supersized' El Niño could land 'massive blow to communities'. A strong El Niño event can significantly impact rainfall and temperature patterns – and this one is set to last until February.

  13. · Nikkei Asia (outlet profile)

    Very strong El Nino to run through February as Asia impacts build

  14. · Tanjug (outlet profile)

    Mediteran u julu zabeležio rekordnu prosečnu temperaturu - 27,7 stepeni

  15. · Inquirer.net (outlet profile)

    El Niño to be ‘very strong,’ last until February, UN warns. GENEVA — El Niño is set to become “very strong” in the months ahead, with the weather phenomenon near certain to persist through to February, the United…

  16. · Channel NewsAsia (outlet profile)

    El Nino to be 'very strong', last until February, UN warns. The World Meteorological Organization said El Nino would peak towards the end of this year - though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well int…

  17. · O Globo (outlet profile)

    ONU alerta que El Niño será 'muito forte' e durará até fevereiro. O fenômeno El Niño deverá ser "muito forte" nos próximos meses e é quase certo que durará até fevereiro, alertou a agência climática das Nações Unidas ne…

  18. · Ouest-France (outlet profile)

    « Une course contre la montre » : l’ONU anticipe un El Niño « de très forte intensité » jusqu’en février 2027. Le phénomène El Niño est « solidement installé » et devrait encore se renforcer dans les prochains mois pour…

  19. · franceinfo (outlet profile)

    Le phénomène "El Niño prend sous nos yeux une ampleur exceptionnelle", faisant craindre des catastrophes climatiques extrêmes, alerte l'ONU. Le phénomène climatique El Niño gagne en puissance et va perturber le climat à…

  20. · The Independent (outlet profile)

    UN says ‘no time to lose’ as record ‘supersized’ El Nino approaches. Forecasts suggest El Nino will raise risk of floods, drought, and extreme heat well into 2027

  21. · Le Monde (outlet profile)

    El Niño : l’ONU prévoit un phénomène « de très forte intensité » jusqu’en février 2027. Le phénomène a historiquement provoqué ou intensifié des sécheresses et risques d’incendies dans certaines régions de l’Amazonie, d…

  22. · France Bleu (outlet profile)

    Climat : l'ONU alerte sur une "très forte" intensification du phénomène El Niño dans les cinq prochains mois. Le phénomène El Niño, désormais "solidement installé", va encore se renforcer dans les cinq prochains mois po…

  23. · 20 Minutes (outlet profile)

    El Niño favorise des puissants ouragans et une tempête tropicale en même temps dans le Pacifique, et c’est pas fini. L’ONU anticipe un El Niño « de très forte intensité », appelé à persister jusqu’en février 2027

  24. · NRK (outlet profile)

    FN advarer: El Niño blir «veldig kraftig». Værfenomenet El Niño vil bli veldig kraftig de neste månedene, advarer Verdens meteorologiorganisasjon (WMO). I en uttalelse torsdag sier FN-organisasjonen at El Niño vil ha st…

  25. · Telegraf (outlet profile)

    Sredozemlje ključa: Zabeležene najviše temperature u poslednje 33 godine. U regionu Sredozemnog mora jul ove godine bio je najtopliji u poslednje 33 godine, sa prosečnom temperaturom mora od 27,7 stepeni, saopštio je ko…

  26. · Metropoles (outlet profile)

    ONU: El Niño deve aumentar os riscos de eventos extremos até 2027. De acordo com a OMM, o El Niño deve atingir o seu pico de intensidade no fim deste ano, mas efeitos devem durar até fevereiro de 2027

  27. · Inquirer.net (outlet profile)

    ‘Very strong,’ El Niño to last until February, UN warns. El Niño is set to become “very strong” in the months ahead, with the weather phenomenon near certain to persist through to February, the United Nations’ climate a…

  28. · The National (UAE) (outlet profile)

    'Supersized before our eyes': UN warns El Nino will intensify in coming months

  29. · Politika (outlet profile)

    Медитеран у јулу најтоплији у последње 33 године. Средоземље обара температурне рекорде

  30. · The Independent (outlet profile)

    Record El Nino to unleash floods and extreme heat until 2027

Factual core

  • The UN climate agency warned that El Niño will become a very strong event in the coming months.
  • The UN predicts the intense El Niño will persist until February 2027.

Full methodology →

In the daily issue: The day in brief — September 3, 2026