YouGov poll: Tories overtake Reform, Labour leads without majority
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Neutral summary
According to a new YouGov MRP poll published on September 24, if a general election were held today, Britain would face a hung parliament, with Labour emerging as the largest party on 241 seats, 85 short of the 326 needed for a majority. Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives would finish second with 130 seats, a modest improvement on their 2024 result, while Nigel Farage's Reform UK would come third with 123 seats. A year ago, the same YouGov model had Reform on 311 seats and the Tories on just 45. The research drew on roughly 14,000 respondents surveyed between August 23 and September 18. The poll suggests Reform's support has been hit by the emergence of Restore Britain, the rival right-wing party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, as well as splits in the right-of-centre vote. Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, who left the Conservatives to join Reform, would both lose their seats back to their former party under the projection. The Guardian reports that progressives who vote tactically to stop Reform could push the party into fourth place. The poll is also bad news for the Greens, who had previously been tipped to win as many as 21 seats in London but would now win none. Neither survey shows Labour winning an overall majority, which would likely force Burnham into coalition arrangements with the Liberal Democrats.
How it was framed
Outlets: 15. Countries: 3. Facts in the shared core: 6.
Publication timeline
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The Independent (outlet profile)
Tories leapfrog Reform UK as Nigel Farage’s party slumps to third in latest poll. Reform has suffered blows in the new poll, falling to its joint lowest position in 18 months
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The Independent (outlet profile)
Reform drops to third place in poll in yet another blow for Farage
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Daily Mail (outlet profile)
Blow for Reform as voters seek to block Farage's route to No10 with boost in tactical voting support for Labour and Tories. New analysis of tactical voting suggests the public is increasingly willing to vote for a 'stop…
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GB News (outlet profile)
Mega poll reveals Reform overtaken by Tories as Andy Burnham faces 'rainbow coalition' path to No10. Reform UK would win fewer seats than both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today, a bombsh…
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Politico Europe (outlet profile)
Revealed: Andy Burnham’s route to victory. Is the Burnham bounce starting to show? Sam Coates and Anne McElvoy dig into a mega poll projecting Labour as the largest party at the next general election – but still 8…
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Adam Bienkov (Byline) (outlet profile)
Reform would only be the third largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held today, according to a new YouGov MRP. Labour would likely need the support of the Lib Dems and SNP in order to govern
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Bloomberg (outlet profile)
Farage’s Reform Slips Behind Labour and Tories in New MRP Poll. Labour would win the most seats if a general election were held tomorrow, according to a detailed poll by YouGov, following a drop in support for Nigel Far…
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The Mirror (outlet profile)
Blow for Farage as poll shows Reform would win fewer seats than Tories and Labour at next election. A YouGov study found that Nigel Farage’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now, which is well do…
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The Independent (outlet profile)
Reform would win fewer seats than Labour and Tories in major blow to Farage, new poll suggests. Reform UK slide from first place to third in latest YouGov MRP polling – with the UK headed for a hung parliament
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Guido Fawkes (outlet profile)
Latest YouGOV Mega Poll Suggests Britain Heading for Hung Parliament. YouGov’s first MRP since Burnham became PM projects a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party on 241 seats. 85 short of a majority and d…
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Daily Express (outlet profile)
Kemi Badenoch celebrates huge breakthrough as mega-poll shows her beating Nigel Farage. Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives are set to overtake Reform UK, as Andy Burnham's Labour faces a hung parliament according to a new Yo…
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The Independent (outlet profile)
Britain’s pro-Brexit parties are becoming increasingly irrelevant. The YouGov MRP poll points to a leftwing coalition and an end to Brexit Britain – and all the Tories and Reform can do is blame each other from the side…
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Jessica Elgot (Guardian) (outlet profile)
EXC - We *also* have an MRP out today - which has some very striking findings. Progressives who vote tactically to stop Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could push his party into FOURTH place. The poll also shows Burnham’s Labo…
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Evening Standard (outlet profile)
Greens to win zero MPs in London as Labour gets 'Burnham bounce', says mega poll. YouGov MRP poll is bad news for the Greens, which had previously been tipped to win as many as 21 seats in London
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Morning Star (outlet profile)
Labour leads the polls as Reform support falls. LABOUR received a pre-conference boost today as two mega-surveys showed the party likely to be the largest at the next general election. The polls also indicate waning sup…
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iNews (outlet profile)
Reform’s top two Tory defectors at risk of losing their seats, poll shows. Reform UK would win fewer seats than the Tories in a general election, a major new YouGov survey finds
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The Independent (outlet profile)
Reform fall to third in polls as Labour’s ‘Burnham bounce’ continues
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GB News (outlet profile)
Mega poll reveals Reform overtaken by Tories as Andy Burnham faces 'rainbow coalition' path to No10. Reform UK would win fewer seats than both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today, a bombsh…
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Morning Star (outlet profile)
Burnham must turn words into action without delay. LABOUR gathers for its conference in Liverpool this weekend in somewhat better shape than looked likely just a few months ago. Two polls published yesterday show it bac…
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The National (Scotland) (outlet profile)
John Curtice gives verdict as Labour fail to reach Westminster majority in new poll. John Curtice has given his verdict after a new poll showed Labour failing to reach a majority in Westminster
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Novara Media (outlet profile)
Reform TANKING in New YouGov Poll. A new Yougov poll predicts that Reform would win fewer seats than Labour and the Tories – with the UK heading for a hung parliament. Plus: The US and China have agreed to extend…
Factual core
- A new YouGov MRP poll shows Labour would win the most seats if a UK general election were held tomorrow.
- A YouGov poll shows Reform UK would win 123 seats in the next UK general election if held now.
- The poll indicates a drop in support for Reform UK.
- Labour's projected seat count is down 170 from the 2024 election.
- The poll's numbers have implications for Andy Burnham.
- The poll's numbers have implications for Kemi Badenoch.