Super El Niño could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths, study says

2026-09-23 10:48 UTC – 2026-09-25 03:00 UTC

Neutral summary

A study by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, released Wednesday, projects that a super El Niño could cause up to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. The authors estimate global land temperatures will be 1.2°C above normal, with 44% more days of extreme heat. The heaviest toll is expected in the Global South: Nigeria could see over 31,000 deaths, with Indonesia and Sudan also among the hardest hit. For Brazil, the estimate is 13,300 deaths, mostly in the North and Northeast regions, making it the most affected country in Latin America. Venezuela and Colombia are projected to see about 2,300 and 2,200 deaths, respectively. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the super El Niño could add 0.3°C to global warming, which has already reached 1.4°C, making 2027 likely the hottest year on record. Scientists warn the event will affect monsoons, bring drought to southern Pakistan, and worsen food insecurity. Some outlets, such as The Independent and franceinfo, cite 451,000 deaths, while others, like Guardian Science and L'Humanité, say 450,000; the difference is due to rounding. Researchers describe the projection as a “postcard from our future,” noting such temperatures could become normal within 20 years.

How it was framed

Outlets: 37. Countries: 15. Facts in the shared core: 6.

Publication timeline

2026-09-23 10:48 · Asharq Al-Awsat (outlet profile)
This Year's El Nino-driven Heat Could Cause Nearly Half a Million More Deaths
2026-09-23 11:00 · Folha de S.Paulo (outlet profile)
O que falta para o sistema de saúde poder enfrentar o Super El Niño?. Em 2024, o Brasil parou para acompanhar a dimensão da catástrofe ambiental no Rio Grande do Sul. Segundo o IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e…
2026-09-23 11:06 · UOL (outlet profile)
O que falta para o sistema de saúde poder enfrentar o Super El Niño?. Em 2024, o Brasil parou para acompanhar a dimensão da catástrofe ambiental no Rio Grande do Sul. Segundo o IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e…
2026-09-23 11:24 · The Independent (outlet profile)
Nearly half a million people could die from El Nino heat in next six months, study says. Researchers say that up to 451,000 extra heat-related deaths between June and the end of February could be linked to the weather e…
2026-09-23 12:31 · Mint (outlet profile)
El Niño could kill 15,800 in India within next 6 months, says survey: What is it? How does it affect temperatures?. The study warned that India could see a significant share of these deaths during the winter months, wit…
2026-09-23 13:03 · Metropoles (outlet profile)
Super El Niño pode causar 450 mil mortes no mundo; Brasil está no top 5. Na América do Sul, o país que pode ser mais afetado pelo El Niño é o Brasil, com 13,3 mil pessoas mortas, segundo previsão de cientistas
2026-09-23 13:22 · UOL (outlet profile)
"Super" El Niño pode causar 451 mil mortes a mais, afirmam pesquisadores. CINGAPURA, 23 Set (Reuters) - O calor extremo causado pelo ?Super El Niño? deste ano pode resultar em ?até 451 mil mortes a ?mais em todo o mundo…
2026-09-23 13:37 · France 24 (outlet profile)
Super El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths worldwide. Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, according to researcher…
2026-09-23 13:51 · Terra (outlet profile)
Por que o Brasil é um dos países com mais registros de raios. Na última década, o país teve de 100 a 150 milhões de descargas elétricas por ano, segundo o ...
2026-09-23 14:01 · UOL (outlet profile)
Por que o Brasil é um dos países com mais registros de raios. or que o Brasil é um dos países com mais registros de raios - Na última década, o país teve de 100 a 150 milhões de descargas elétricas por ano, segundo o In…
2026-09-23 14:05 · New York Post (outlet profile)
Hottest El Niño on record could kill up to 451,000 people in six months, scientists claim — warning of a deadly new normal. Unfortunately, the experts predict that these anomalous temps are “postcards from the future,"…
2026-09-23 14:05 · Channel NewsAsia (outlet profile)
El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths: Research
2026-09-23 14:44 · The Hill (outlet profile)
Super-strong El Niño could lead to 450K deaths. Map shows the states hit hardest. The worst heat may still be to come.
2026-09-23 14:49 · Newsweek (outlet profile)
Thousands of Americans Warned Over Hidden Risk as Strong El Niño Looms. Residents in mobile homes are 15 to 20 times more likely to die in a tornado than those in permanent homes.
2026-09-23 14:57 · Folha de S.Paulo (outlet profile)
Mais 13 mil mortes por calor no Brasil são estimadas devido ao El Niño. O El Niño atual pode causar 451 mil mortes em decorrência de dias de calor extremo -13,3 mil apenas no Brasil. A estimativa é do Laboratório de Imp…
2026-09-23 14:58 · CBS News (outlet profile)
El Niño could cause 451,000 more heat deaths compared to normal year, group says. Researchers project nearly half a million more heat-related deaths from June 2026 to February 2027 compared with a typical year, as a res…
2026-09-23 14:59 · France 24 (outlet profile)
El Nino: Climate scientists warn of "Godzilla-level" climate event. Extreme heat caused by this year’s “super El Niño” could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, accordi…
2026-09-23 15:00 · La Nación (outlet profile)
Un estudio internacional advierte que habrá 451.000 muertes más debido al Súper Niño, especialmente en sitios pobres y calurosos. Los países con menores recursos y las regiones ya expuestas a altas temperaturas concentr…
2026-09-23 15:00 · Dawn (outlet profile)
El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths, estimates say. This year’s powerful El Nino weather pattern could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February as it turbocharges global temper…
2026-09-23 15:05 · Inquirer.net (outlet profile)
El Niño could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths – research. PARIS, France — This year’s powerful El Niño weather pattern could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February as it turbocha…
2026-09-23 15:06 · G1 (outlet profile)
Super El Niño pode matar mais de 450 mil pessoas ao redor do mundo, dizem cientistas. Cientistas de universidades americanas especialistas em clima dizem que mais de 450 mil pessoas podem morrer devido ao aumento de cal…
2026-09-23 15:18 · UOL (outlet profile)
El Niño pode causar 451 mil mortes adicionais devido ao calor. l Niño pode causar 451 mil mortes adicionais devido ao calor - Brasil está entre os cinco países mais afetados pelo fenômeno climático, atrás de Nigéria, In…
2026-09-23 16:17 · Clarín (outlet profile)
Súper Niño 2026 en Argentina, EN VIVO: el calor extremo podría causar 450 mil muertes en el mundo, advierte un estudio. La investigación realizada en los Estados Unidos estimó los fallecimientos por las altas temperatur…
2026-09-23 16:26 · InfoMoney (outlet profile)
Com El Niño, mortes por calor podem chegar a 451 mil; no Brasil, serão 13,3 mil. Segundo relatório de laboratório do clima da Universidade de Chicago, no top 10 dos países mais afetados com mortes por calor, o Brasil oc…
2026-09-23 16:29 · Al Jazeera (outlet profile)
Scientists warn super El Nino could cause 450,000 deaths: Should we worry?. Global South countries will be worst affected by the phenomenon sweeping the planet from June to February.
2026-09-23 17:06 · CBC News (outlet profile)
El Niño-driven heat could cause half a million extra deaths, report says. Here's where. This year's powerful El Niño and the record global heat it's driving, along with severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water sup…
2026-09-23 18:28 · Olhar Digital (outlet profile)
Super El Niño pode provocar 451 mil mortes por calor até 2027; Brasil está entre os mais afetados. Estudo estima que as temperaturas médias globais sobre áreas terrestres podem ficar cerca de 1,2 °C acima do normal nos…
2026-09-23 20:40 · Jovem Pan (outlet profile)
El Niño provocará até 451 mil mortes associadas ao calor; estima-se 13,3 mil no Brasil. Estudo da Climate Impact Lab indica que o maior impacto do fenômeno climático será em países em desenvolvimento
2026-09-23 20:59 · Agencia Brasil (outlet profile)
Estudo prevê até 13,3 mil mortes no Brasil com calor do Super El Niño. O calor extremo causado pelo Super El Niño pode provocar 13,3 mil mortes no Brasil, a maioria nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, de acordo com relatório…
2026-09-23 21:04 · Inside Climate News (outlet profile)
Super El Niño to Cause 451,000 Heat Deaths. More than 451,000 people are projected to die across the globe in the next six months from the additional heat brought by a super El Niño, according to estimates from climate…

Factual core

The super El Niño is predicted to lead to 450,000 deaths in the next six months.
The Super El Niño is a climate phenomenon.
A new scientific assessment warns that extreme heat during the first nine months of a strong El Niño, from June 2026 to February 2027, could cause about 451,000 additional deaths worldwide.
The time frame for the predicted deaths is from June to the end of February.
An additional 19,300 heat deaths are projected in Indonesia.
Developing countries would be hit hardest by the heat-related death toll.

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