OECD cuts UK 2027 growth forecast to 1%
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Neutral summary
In its interim outlook published on 23 September, the OECD cut its forecast for UK growth in 2027 to 1% from the 1.1% it had projected in June. The estimate for 2026 was raised to 1.1% from 0.9%, helped by “solid” domestic demand in the second quarter, though that still falls short of the 1.4% growth recorded last year. The organisation cited the effects of a prolonged Iran war, a global slowdown, elevated energy costs and a “higher policy rate” weighing on European activity as factors likely to constrain momentum next year. UK inflation is now expected to be below previous forecasts this year, but to take longer than expected to return to target. The figures were described as a blow to Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey ahead of the Budget due next month. Separately, the OECD raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Italy to 0.9%, leaving the 2027 estimate unchanged at 0.6%. The organisation also raised inflation projections for every G20 economy except China and Saudi Arabia and said the US Federal Reserve could hike rates again.
How it was framed
Outlets: 12. Countries: 3. Facts in the shared core: 1.
Publication timeline
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City AM (outlet profile)
UK growth set to slow in 2027, OECD says. The UK economy will grow slower than expected next year as the effects of a long Iran war drag on activity, the world’s leading economic forecaster has said. The Organisat…
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The Independent (outlet profile)
UK growth to slow next year after stronger-than-expected 2026, says OECD. The OECD also said UK inflation will be below previous forecasts this year but will then take longer than expected to fall back to target levels.
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Evening Standard (outlet profile)
UK growth to slow next year after stronger-than-expected 2026, says OECD. The OECD also said UK inflation will be below previous forecasts this year but will then take longer than expected to fall back to target levels.
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Belfast Telegraph (outlet profile)
UK growth to slow next year after stronger-than-expected 2026, says OECD
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The Independent (outlet profile)
Blow for Burnham as UK economic growth set to slow next year. The forecast comes despite a stronger-than-expected performance in 2026 and ahead of the government’s crucial Budget next month
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La Repubblica (outlet profile)
L’Ocse rivede al rialzo la crescita dell’Italia: +0,9% nel 2026. L’outlook intermedio dell’organizzazione. Confermate le stime per il 2027, con il Pil a +0,6%
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Daily Mail (outlet profile)
OECD downgrades UK growth outlook dealing Chancellor another blow ahead of the Budget. Britain's economic outlook for next year has been downgraded by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in…
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ANSA (English) (outlet profile)
OECD raises Italy 2026 GDP growth forecast to +0.9%,2027 forecast unchanged at +0.6%. Inflation to fall from 3% to 2.6% says Paris-based organization
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The Mirror (outlet profile)
Britain's economy predicted to slow in 2027 - but after doing better than expected this year. Latest forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are a mixed bag for Chancellor John Healey a…
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Guido Fawkes (outlet profile)
OECD Forecasts Lower Growth and Higher Inflation for Britain in 2027. The OECD growth outlook – the latest since June – has slashed expectations for Britain’s growth in 2027. Oh dear… Growth this…
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Evening Standard (outlet profile)
UK business activity slows to three-month low amid Iran war inflation pressure. The S&P Global flash UK composite purchasing managers’ index recorded a reading of 51.7 for September, down from 52.5 in August.
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The Independent (outlet profile)
UK business activity slows to three-month low amid Iran war inflation pressure. The S&P Global flash UK composite purchasing managers’ index recorded a reading of 51.7 for September, down from 52.5 in August.
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Belfast Telegraph (outlet profile)
UK business activity slows to three-month low amid Iran war inflation pressure
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The Independent (outlet profile)
UK economy to grow faster than expected – but there’s bad news for 2027
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GB News (outlet profile)
GDP growth to slow next year despite UK economy rebounding in 2026, OECD predicts. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the UK is projected to slow next year despite a better-than-expected 2026, according to the Organ…
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ANSA (English) (outlet profile)
OECD's Scarpetta says Italy growth more resilient than expected, ahead with reforms. To boost productivity and economic growth says chief economist
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The Japan Times (outlet profile)
Global inflation to linger and Fed to hike again, OECD says. The OECD raised projections compared with June for consumer-price growth in every Group of 20 economy apart from China and Saudi Arabia.
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GB News (outlet profile)
Tax overhaul looms as Andy Burnham considers personal allowance reform in 'meaningful boost for millions'. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is understood to be considering major reform to the tax system, which could give a "…
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Morning Star (outlet profile)
Britain’s economic growth to slow next year, OECD predicts. PM ANDY BURNHAM’S plans suffered a blow today after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted the country’s economic growth t…
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Daily Mail (outlet profile)
Pre-Budget triple whammy as figures show UK economy already nearly flatlining with forecasts cut and IMF issuing debt warning... but Burnham insists he will 'dial up' Manchesterism. Labour has been hit with a pre-Budget…
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GB News (outlet profile)
Retirees could avoid state pension tax if Labour hikes HMRC personal allowance. Next year's tax on state pension payments may no longer be implemented if the Labour Government implements a rumoured policy change by Apri…
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Daily Mail (outlet profile)
Could the personal allowance rise to £15,570 in the Budget and how would it be funded?. The Government is said to be considering upping the income threshold at which earners start paying tax from £12,570 to £15,570.
Factual core
- The OECD forecasts UK economic growth will slow in 2027 after a stronger-than-expected 2026.